How often is the crowd right?
Every resolved Yes/No market on Vatic, the crowd's final percentage against what actually happened. If the crowd is well calibrated, its 70% calls come true about 70% of the time.
Not enough results yet
We publish these numbers once 200 markets with at least 3 players have been resolved, so they mean something. Right now there are 0.
Make a call and add to the recordHow we calculate it
We take every Yes/No market that was resolved Yes or No and had at least 3 players, leaving out test markets and cancelled ones. The crowd's forecast is the share of Vpoints on Yes when the market stopped taking calls. Markets are grouped into 10-point bands, and for each band we show how often the answer was Yes. The Brier score is the average squared gap between forecast and outcome. Vpoints are free and have no cash value. Updated 17 October 2026 at 03:10 UTC.